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☆ UK economy posts 0.1% growth in February in further sign of recession rebound
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON — U.K. gross domestic product rose 0.1% in February, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday, providing another sign of a return to sluggish economic growth this year. The economy contracted in the third and fourth corners of 2023, putting the U.K. in a technical recession. Construction output, which boosted growth at the start of the year, fell 1.9% in February. The reading "all-but confirms the recession ended" last year, Paul Dales, chief U.K. economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. British inflation fell more than expected in March, to a nearly two-and-a-half year low of 3.4%.

Persons: Paul Dales Organizations: Street, LONDON, National Statistics, Capital Economics Locations: London, England, U.S

☆ UK economy flatlines as real estate activity drops
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

London CNN —Britain’s economy stagnated in the third quarter — its weakest performance in a year — as activity in the real estate sector fell, weighed down by high interest rates. The real estate sector — which accounts for 13% of UK economic output and is particularly sensitive to higher borrowing costs — has taken a knock this year. The data — which measures how efficiently the economy is making use of labor and capital — showed that UK productivity had barely improved since 2007. “Britain is a stagnation nation that has struggled to secure sustained economic growth since the financial crisis,” James Smith, research director at the Resolution Foundation, a think tank, wrote in a note Friday. UK finance minister Jeremy Hunt is due to outline the government’s plans to boost economic growth later this month.

Persons: —, Paul Dales, ”, ” James Smith, Jeremy Hunt Organizations: London CNN, National Statistics, Bank of England, Capital Economics Locations: Halifax, Britain

☆ UK economy fails to grow in Q3 but sidesteps start of a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

People walk over London Bridge looking at a view of Tower Bridge in the City of London financial district in London, Britain, October 25, 2023. REUTERS/ Susannah Ireland/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Britain's sluggish economy failed to grow in the July-to-September period but at least managed to avoid the start of a recession, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed on Friday. In the month of September on its own, the economy grew by 0.2% from August when growth was revised down to 0.1% from 0.2%. "But the key point is that the economy is not weak enough to reduce core inflation and wage growth quickly," Dales said. In the three months to September, output in Britain's huge services sector fell by 0.1%, industrial production was broadly flat and construction grew by 0.1%, the Office for National Statistics said.

Persons: Susannah Ireland, Paul Dales, BoE, Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, William Schomberg, Andy Bruce, Sarah Young Organizations: REUTERS, Office, National Statistics, Reuters, Capital Economics, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: City, London, Britain, Germany, United States

☆ Central banks across Europe pause for breath after mammoth rate hike run, but face 'triple dilemma'
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

U.K. pauseThe Bank of England opted to pause interest rate moves after 14 straight hikes, keeping its main policy rate at 5.25%. The decline came despite interest rate hikes generally boosting the value of a currency. Scandinavian inflationIn northern Europe, Norway and Sweden opted for rate hikes on Thursday and suggested that further tightening could be ahead. Norway's headline inflation rate was 4.8% in August, with core inflation at 6.3%. The Norges Bank forecast now indicates a policy rate of 4.5% through 2024, up from the current 4.25%.

Persons: Bank of England Andrew Bailey, BoE, Alastair Grant, ALASTAIR GRANT, Carsten Brzeski, BOE, Andrew Bailey, Paul Dales, Simon French, Panmure Gordon, Thomas Jordan, Jordan, Ida Wolden Bache, Bache Organizations: Bank of England, The Bank of England, Getty, Afp, ING, CNBC, of England, Capital Economics, U.S . Federal, HSBC, Panmure, Swiss National Bank, European Central Bank, ECB, U.S, Norway's Norges Bank, Norges Bank Locations: London, U.K, Paul, Switzerland, Swiss, Europe, Norway, Sweden, Norway's

☆ Central bank interest rates: Is the global fight to tame inflation nearly over?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

London CNN —Central bankers have had to climb a metaphoric mountain over the past two years in the battle to control runaway inflation. The announcement came just hours after Switzerland’s central bank kept rates unchanged and a day after the US Federal Reserve did the same, holding its key lending rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. “Central banks think they have raised interest rates enough to bring inflation down to their 2% targets in a couple of years’ time,” Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, told CNN. Key interest rates are now at levels that, if “maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution” to reducing inflation to its 2% target, the central bank said. “By this time next year, we anticipate that 21 out of the world’s 30 major central banks will be cutting interest rates.”

Persons: ” Paul Dales, “, Jerome Powell, Sarah Silbiger, Brent, Andrew Bailey, ” Seema Shah, ”, J.P, Morgan, Jennifer McKeown Organizations: London CNN —, Bank of England, US Federal Reserve, Capital Economics, CNN, European Central Bank, ECB, Federal, Washington DC, Bloomberg, Getty, European Union, EU, European Commission, Asset Management, “ Locations: United Kingdom, United States, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Russia

☆ Bank of England pauses interest rate hikes as inflation falls
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

London CNN —The Bank of England paused its historic interest rate hiking campaign for the first time in nearly two years Thursday after inflation fell unexpectedly in August. The Federal Reserve also kept rates on hold Wednesday, as did Switzerland’s central bank earlier on Thursday. The Bank of England did not rule out further rate increases, however, although it said it expected headline inflation to “fall significantly” in the near term, reflecting lower energy and food inflation. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast inflation would rise to 7% — from 6.8% in July — because of higher oil prices. “There is an air of underlying weakness,” chief UK economist at Capital Economics Paul Dales said about July’s GDP data.

Persons: Martin Beck, insolvencies, Capital Economics Paul Dales Organizations: London CNN —, Bank of England, Federal, Reuters, Office, National Statistics, Capital Economics Paul Locations: United Kingdom, —

☆ UK economy shrinks at fastest pace in seven months, hit by strikes and wet weather
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Office for National Statistics are due to release the latest UK CPI Inflation data on Wednesday. The economy put in a better-than-expected performance for the second quarter as a whole, with the ONS reiterating its reading of 0.2% growth. July's surprise dip meant the economy shrank at its fastest pace since December, according to ONS figures. On Tuesday, figures showed U.K. mortgages in arrears jumped to a seven-year high in the three months to June. Major investment banks trimmed their U.K. growth expectations following the reading.

Persons: Jose Sarmento Matos, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, James Smith, Paul Dales Organizations: National Statistics, Bloomberg, Getty, ING, Capital Economics Locations: Italian, London

U.K. gross domestic profit fell by 0.5% in July, below the 0.2% contraction forecast in a Reuters poll of economists. The economy put in a better-than-expected performance for the second quarter as a whole, with the ONS reiterating its reading of 0.2% growth. It is the latest sign of economic strain amid higher interest rates. On Tuesday, figures showed U.K. mortgages in arrears jumped to a seven-year high in the three months to June. Dales highlighted strikes and unusually wet weather as drags on certain sectors, but said output declined more broadly, suggesting widespread weakness.

Persons: Paul Dales, — Jenni Reid Organizations: National Statistics, Capital Economics, Bank of England

Sterling weakened against the U.S. dollar and the euro as the Office for National Statistics said the consumer price inflation growth rate was its lowest since March 2022 but stayed above the pace of price growth in other big, rich economies. The BoE said in May it expected June inflation would fall to 7.9%. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the core measure of price growth to hold at 7.1%. Reuters GraphicsFood price and non-alcoholic drinks price inflation slowed to 17.3% - still a major strain on the finances of many households - from 18.3% in May. Services prices, also monitored closely by the BoE, rose by 7.2% in annual terms, slowing from 7.4% in the 12 months to May.

Persons: Sterling, BoE, Paul Dales, Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, William Schomberg, Andy Bruce, Kate Holton, Catherine Evans Organizations: Reuters, Bank of, Bank of England, U.S ., National Statistics, Capital Economics, Investors, Reuters Graphics, Labour Party, Sunak's Conservative Party of, Manufacturers, Thomson Locations: Bank of England, Britain

☆ UK inflation slows to lowest level in more than a year
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

London CNN —UK inflation eased more than expected in June, slowing to its lowest annual rate since March 2022, official data showed Wednesday. Consumer prices rose 7.9% last month compared with a year ago, down from 8.7% in May, the Office for National Statistics said. “Inflation slowed substantially … driven by drops for motor fuels,” ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said in a statement. “While the Bank of England will welcome the fall in inflation, it is unlikely to substantially change its hawkish policy stance,” said KPMG chief economist Yael Selfin. “The main story today is that inflation is lower than expected, fueling a narrative that we are through the worst,” said Kitty Ussher, chief economist at the Institute of Directors.

Persons: Grant Fitzner, ”, Yael Selfin, Paul Dales, Selfin, “, Kitty Ussher, … Organizations: London CNN —, National Statistics, Reuters, Bank of England, ONS, “, KPMG, Capital Economics, ”, Institute of Directors

Economic output fell 0.1% in May from April, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, after growth of 0.2% in the previous month. All sectors of the economy contracted with the exception of services, which showed no growth. Finance minister Jeremy Hunt said high inflation continued to hamper the economy and he called for patience in bringing it down. Some companies in the arts, entertainment and recreation sector said they had benefited from the extra bank holiday, as well as hotels and restaurants, the ONS said. Britain's economy often shows some rebound in subsequent months when output is temporarily dented by extra bank holidays.

Persons: Maja Smiejkowska, King Charles, Paul Dales, Dales, BoE, Jeremy Hunt, Andy Bruce, William Schomberg, Kate Holton, Peter Graff, Toby Chopra Organizations: Charing Cross, REUTERS, National Statistics, Bank of England, Capital Economics, Reuters, ONS, European Union, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, Germany

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast that the annual consumer price inflation rate would drop to 8.4% in May, moving further away from October's 41-year high of 11.1%. "May's CPI figures ratchet up the pressure on the Monetary Policy Committee to increase Bank Rate substantially further over the coming months," Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said. Food and drink price inflation dropped slightly to 18.3% from April's 19.0%. The BoE is widely expected to raise interest rates on Thursday to 4.75% from 4.5%. After Wednesday's data, markets fully priced in interest rates reaching 6% by December - up from around a 50% chance of such a move on Tuesday.

Persons: Henry Nicholls, Samuel Tombs, Sterling, BoE, Grant Fitzner, . Paul Dales, Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, Andrew Heavens Organizations: Bank of England, REUTERS, Bank of, Reuters, Monetary, Committee, Pantheon, U.S ., National Statistics, ., Capital Economics, Bank, Fed, ECB, Thomson Locations: City, London, Britain, Bank of England

☆ UK homeowners brace for more mortgage pain as borrowing costs shoot up
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

London CNN —Existing and aspiring UK homeowners are bracing for a fresh wave of misery as a rise in benchmark borrowing costs threatens to push up monthly mortgage payments. The yield on the country’s two-year government bonds — which is used to set interest rates on mortgages — jumped to 4.87% on Tuesday. The figures have pointed to persistent inflationary pressures, increasing the chances of more interest rate hikes by the Bank of England and driving up gilt yields. “We’ve had to reflect that in our mortgage rates,” the spokesperson said. “[UK inflation] is a chronic problem, and it’s not something that you can deal with quickly.”

Persons: Liz Truss, Craig, Samuel Tombs, “ We’ve, Paul Dales, “, Truss, Henry Nicholls, ”, Ed Al Organizations: London CNN, Bank of England, Royal London Asset Management, CNN, Pantheon, UK Finance, HSBC, HSBC UK, Capital Economics, Reuters, Columbia Threadneedle Investments Locations: United Kingdom, Europe, United States

☆ UK predicted to have the highest inflation rate out of all advanced economies this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The OECD recently predicted that the UK will experience the highest inflation among all advanced economies this year. The U.K. headline inflation is "projected to slow on the back of declining energy prices and to come down close to target by the end of 2024," the OECD noted. "Core inflation is set to be more persistent due to strong services inflation, only receding to 3.2% in 2024." The U.K. is set to report a headline inflation of 6.9% this year, above the OECD average of 6.6% for 2023. Sanctions-struck Russia is forecast to have a headline inflation of just under 5.4% in 2023.

Persons: Andrew Bailey, Governor Bailey, BoE, Paul Dales Organizations: OECD, LONDON, Organization for Economic Cooperation, Bank of England, Capital Economics Locations: Sheffield, Argentina, Turkey, Russia, Paris, Paul

☆ UK inflation surprises for all the wrong reasons
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-24 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Britain’s stubbornly high inflation is a major drag on its economy because it increases the cost of everyday goods and services, dampening consumption. At the same time, interest rate hikes to combat inflation make loans and mortgages more expensive, which further weighs on spending by businesses and consumers. “The indirect impact of energy prices on business costs means lower gas and electricity prices should eventually feed into lower core inflation. But strong wage growth is likely to keep services inflation high throughout this year,” he added. But it cautioned that high inflation is still a considerable risk to the UK economy.

Persons: Grant Fitzner, Britain’s, ” Paul Dales, Martin Beck, ” Organizations: London CNN —, National Statistics, Bank of England, International Monetary Fund, Bank, Capital Economics, IMF, Bank of England’s Locations: United Kingdom

☆ Rainy March dampens shopper spending in Britain
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast that sales volumes would fall by a monthly 0.5% after rising in January and February. Darren Morgan, director of economics at the Office for National Statistics, said the broader trend for retail sales was less subdued than the figures for March alone suggested. Retail sales volumes in March were 3.1% lower than a year earlier. "That said, even though the worst of the declines in retail sales are in the past, higher interest rates will restrain spending this year," he said. The BoE is expected to raise interest rates for the 12th consecutive meeting in May, taking Bank Rate to 4.5% from its current level of 4.25%.

☆ UK inflation stays at 10% as bread rises at record clip. Here’s why it’s proving hard to beat
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

London CNN —UK inflation remained above 10% in March, far higher than in the United States and Europe, as bread prices rose at a record pace. Energy an ‘Achilles’ heel’The United Kingdom is a net importer of energy, unlike the United States. UK inflation to fall sharplyThe good news is that UK inflation is expected to fall rapidly through the remainder of the year, as lower wholesale gas prices feed through to household energy bills. From April, “UK inflation might start to drop faster than in Europe,” he said. But core inflation could take longer to fall in the United Kingdom, according to Gregory of Capital Economics.

Food prices soared 18.2% through the year to February, the sharpest rise since the late 1970s. The latest figures could make it more likely that the Bank of England hikes interest rates again when it meets Thursday. "It's still a very close call, but these figures give us a bit more confidence in our forecast that the Bank will raise interest rates from 4% to 4.25% tomorrow." The data complicates the central bank's decision over whether it should raise rates for the 11th consecutive time Thursday — and makes it harder for the government to deliver on its January pledge to halve inflation this year. Wages rose 6.5% in January compared with a year prior, far below the inflation rate both that month and in February.

London CNN —Consumer prices in the United Kingdom jumped by 10.4% in February compared with a year ago, as food inflation hit its highest level in more than 45 years and restaurants charged more for alcohol, official data showed Wednesday. Food inflation hit a new record high, with prices rising 18.2% through the year to February, up from 16.8% in January. The ONS said soaring food prices were partly caused by shortages of some salad and vegetable items, which led to rationing by supermarkets. Inflation had been falling since hitting a 41-year high of 11.1% in October, largely driven by the lower cost of motor fuels. Analysts say the surprise increase in prices makes it more likely the Bank of England will hike interest rates again when it meets Thursday.

☆ Why the UK spring budget won't fix the economy's problems
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

London CNN —The last time a British finance minister unveiled a “budget for growth,” UK financial markets crashed and mortgage rates shot up, threatening to tip an already weak economy into a deep recession. But he will deliver his budget against essentially the same gloomy backdrop: the UK economy is stuck in the doldrums. John Springford, deputy director at the Centre for European Reform, estimates that Brexit had cost the UK economy 5.5% of GDP by June 2022. SVB could depress UK bank lendingAnother factor that could weigh on the UK economy in the near term: Silicon Valley Bank. “It is likely that UK financial conditions will remain tighter (or potentially significantly tighter) over coming months than they would have been without the US banking troubles,” Pickering said in a research note Monday.

☆ BoE set to lift rates to 14-year high, might hint at next moves
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The European Central Bank looks set to raise rates by a half a percentage point on Thursday to 2.5% and the main question for investors is how much more tightening it will signal. LOWER RATES PEAKAs of Wednesday, investors were pricing a roughly two-in-three chance that BoE rates will peak at 4.5% by June, with the possibility of an earlier halt at 4.25%. The BoE's inflation forecasts are also likely to change with recent sharp falls in international gas prices and a rise in the value of sterling lowering inflation later this year. The BoE is also due to update its estimate of the rate of unemployment that does not push up inflation. A rise in the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment would represent a lower speed limit on Britain's already slow economy.

☆ Bank of England to add 50 bps to Bank Rate on Dec. 15; peak at 4.25% in Q2: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"We think it will be a 50 bp rise, taking Bank Rate to 3.50%, with risks weighted towards a larger 75 bp move, rather than a smaller 25 bp one." Only two economists expected a 75 bp increase next week compared to 13 of 56 in the Nov. 23 poll. The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected to shift down to a 50 bp move this month after four consecutive 75 bp increases, a separate Reuters poll found. After next week's move, the BoE will add another 50 bps in the first quarter and 25 bps in the second, with medians showing Bank Rate peaking at 4.25% then. In last month's survey, Bank Rate was expected to peak at 4.25% next quarter and there was a big divide between economists in the latest survey as to when and where it would level out.

☆ Markets are losing retail traders, that's bad for stock prices
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Daily average trades at companies like TD Ameritrade (AMTD) and Charles Schwab (SCHW) spiked to new highs in March 2020 and again in January 2021 and February 2021. The number of daily retail trades at Morgan Stanley fell more than 15% over the third quarter from a year earlier, to 805,000 trades a day. In Februrary 2021, Interactive Brokers registered an average of 3.7 million daily retail trades. Recent search trends on Google also show a drop in interest in the stock market. The Investor Movement Index (IMX), created by TD Ameritrade to indicate the sentiment of retail investors, fell by 7.26% during the September period.

Prime Minister Liz Truss announces her resignation at 10 Downing Street on October 20, 2022 in London, England. Leon Neal | Getty ImagesLONDON — U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned Thursday following a failed tax-cutting budget that rocked financial markets and which led to a revolt within her own Conservative Party. "I recognize though, given the situation, I cannot deliver the mandate on which I was elected by the Conservative Party. I have therefore spoken to His Majesty the King to announce that I am resigning as leader of the Conservative Party." The number who have written letters to Brady expressing no confidence in the prime minister was reported to be over 100 by Thursday.

☆ Soaring food prices push UK inflation back to 40-year high
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Oct 19 (Reuters) - The biggest jump in food prices since 1980 pushed British inflation back into double digits last month, matching a 40-year high hit in July in a new blow for households grappling with the cost-of-living crisis. The Office for National Statistics said the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 10.1% in annual terms in September. Hotel prices also increased in September, the ONS said. "Today's release highlights the danger that underlying inflation remains strong even as the economy weakens," said Paul Dales, chief UK economist at consultancy Capital Economics. He pointed to rising core inflation, a measure that excludes volatile food and energy prices, which hit a new 30-year high of 6.5%.

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